Cubs vs Astros Preview, thoughts

Tonight the Cubs start a three game series with the Houston Astros. The Cubs come into the series at 28-26 and 3.5GB. The Astros are currently last in the N.L. Central at 25-30 and 7GB, but they have been playing well as of late, winning 7 of their last 10. The Astros also have two of the best hitters in baseball right now: Miguel Tejada (.354 Avg) and Hunter Pence (.342 Avg). Not to mention the fact that Pence is a Cub-Killer. The Cubs have also been playing better baseball of late, taking 2 0f 3 from Cincinnati over the weekend, and winning 6 of their last 10 overall. The Cubs did not score a lot of runs in the series against the Reds and did not hit at all with runners in scoring position. If the Cubs want to win this series in Houston, they will need to start hitting. I expect them to hit a little bit better in the Astros band-box of a stadium.

Tonight Ted Lilly (6-4, 3.28 ERA) is pitching for the Cubs and Brian Moehler (2-3, 6.37 ERA). Moehler is nothing special and the Cubs should hit him hard, they have faced him twice already this season. Lilly is 2-0 this year against the Astros, he has had problems giving up home runs to them. Recently however, Lilly has been very sharp, I expect him to pitch well tonight. The Cubs should win tonight's game.

Other thoughts: Alfonso Soriano has been terrible on this road trip and is currently hitting .241 with an OBP of .305, not good enough for a highly paid lead-off hitter, and alleged All-Star. Soriano did hit the game winning-HR on Sunday and has hit well in Houston this season, hopefully he can get hot, and get out of this funk that he has been in since mid-May. Also, I would play Geovany Soto in this series, at least for the first two games since we are facing Moehler and lefty, Wandy Rodriguez on Wednesday. With the short porch in left field, maybe Soto can get a hold of one. However if he does not perform in this series, bench him for the upcoming Inter-League games. Rich Harden made a rehab appearance at AAA-Iowa last night and allowed no runs over 4+ innings with 6Ks and 2BBs. He should be set to return to the Cubs by this weekend to pitch against the Twins, most likely on Saturday.

Lou Piniella says he is sticking with Carlos Marmol as his main set-up man, despite being uncharacteristically wild all season, and blowing leads as of late. People have been asking Lou if he would consider switching Marmol and Angel Guzman's roles recently. This is mostly due to the fact that Guzman has been our best reliever for awhile (2-0, 2.28 ERA in 27.2 IP). The biggest difference between Marmol and Guzman has been the walks issued: Marmol has allowed 27BB vs 29Ks in 27IP, which is not very good, the only reason his ERA is not higher (its 3.67) is that he does not give up any hits (14). Guzman on the other hand, has only issued 8BB in his 27.2IP and has 25Ks. He has gotten on Lou's good side by not walking batters. For now, I feel Lou should stick with Marmol, who should be given the benefit of the doubt that he can fix his problems. Marmol went through a similar rough stretch last June and then was an All-Star, and the was un-hittable down the stretch for the Cubs. Marmol should be kept on a short leash in games though, once he walks one batter, someone else should begin throwing in the bullpen.

Furthermore, tonight is the MLB Draft which will be telecast on MLB Network, beginning at 5:05 pm CT. The Cubs hold the 31st overall pick in the draft. They also have the 79th, 109th, and the 140th in the first 4 rounds. The Cubs have not had a lot of success in the early rounds of the draft this past decade. Only Mark Prior (2001) was a first-round pick that panned out for the Cubs, albeit briefly, before injuries ruined his career. The jury is still out on 2007 #1 pick 3B Josh Vitters, who is 19 years old, and playing at Class-A Peoria. This season Vitters is hitting .343 with 13HR and 35 RBI, with an OPS of .986. He is projected to take over at third-base for Aramis Ramirez after Ramirez's contract is up after 2012. I still think Vitters can be on the team by Opening Day 2011. With Derrek Lee departing after his contract ends after 2010 we will need a first-baseman, the Cubs should think about moving Ramirez over to first to finish his career, therefore opening up third-base for Vitters. Ramirez could be a good first-baseman, he is big, and has a good arm. In addition, playing first should limit Ramirez's exposure to injuries and prolong his career.

Hopefully tonight the Cubs can find a few nice players in the draft. I would like to see them address: Outfield, Catcher, Starting Pitching, Shortstop, and First Base.